FUME

Forest fires result from a number of interacting factors like ignitions, conditions amenable for fire initiation and spread, and landscapes with vegetation (i.e. fuels) that can support the combustion process. Factors driving fire have not been stable during the last decades, mainly due to modifications in the territory caused by socioeconomic and climate changes. Changes in climate and socioeconomics are projected to continue. In FUME we have investigated the relationships between the various drivers of forest fires (socioeconomic, landscape and climate) across various scales and countries during the last decades. Additionally, future projections of these drivers were used to anticipate future risks. We assessed impacts of future changes by means of field experiments and modeling techniques, based on mean and extreme climate episodes, like droughts. The effects of changes in fire regime on the vegetation were also investigated. Restoration needs under changing conditions and for reducing fire hazard were also explored. Policy needs and procedures used in a number of countries were evaluated in regards coping with fire. The main focus was the Southern countries of Europe, although Northern Europe, Northern and South Africa, Anatolia, California and Chile were also investigated.

– The group determined that fire activity has been changing in Mediterranean countries as landscapes also changed. Fires burned where hazardous conditions prevailed, but unevenly, and recently burned sites were the most fire prone. Of greatest risk is the rural–urban interface, and the project developed methods for modelling that risk. Socioeconomic factors and climate (especially anomalous dry spells) were important predicting factors. Climate generally reduced fire danger in southern Europe.

– FUME modelled future LULC in those regions, showing that fire danger will depend on planning decisions. Certain climate scenarios should see a significant increase of fire danger, though in other cases the danger may reduce. Eastern Europe may become a new high-risk area.

– Climate change will probably impact regenerative germination of Mediterranean plant species, but making generalisations is difficult.

– Lastly, the group found that Mediterranean pine forests will require active management to increase resilience. The team recommended various options. The project particularly called for an integration of research, policy and management to decrease fire risk.O30

– The FUME project achieved its goals concerning study of likely future fire-risk scenarios affecting Europe. The group also suggested options for mitigation.