LIFE WATER CHANGE

The WATER CHANGE project aimed to provide the tools and methodology necessary to model the impact of Global Change on water resources and infrastructure. Global change is defined as all the anthropic-related changes affecting directly or indirectly the water quantity and the water quality, influencing the sustainable management of the water resources in a river basin; Future scenarios aimed to cover both climatic and anthropogenic medium and long-term changes. Ultimately, the project sought to provide a means of adapting effectively to the global changes taking place and ensuring adequate quantity and quality of future water resources.

Specifically, the project sought to:

Develop a methodology for medium and long-term modelling of water resources in a river basin, taking into account future scenarios of climate change, land use and water consumption, based on socio-economic evolution;

Develop a modelling system capable of predicting the evolution of water resources within a river basin, by connecting input data, models and output data, and allowing the user to visualize and analyse the results;

Apply the methodology and tool to a case study: the Llobregat river basin, which is highly affected by human activity;

Assess the impacts of global changes on water resources and associated infrastructures in the Llobregat basin and to determine the vulnerability of different sectors;

Propose appropriate adaptation measures for the case studied, based on an evaluation of their economic and environmental costs and benefits.

The WATER CHANGE project successfully developed a methodology and tool that allows users to assess the impacts of Global Change on water resources and inform adapted policies accordingly. The Water Change Modelling System is useful for river basin agencies and water companies to develop long term planning in compliance with future scenarios of climate, land use and water demand.

The project worked throughout with key stakeholders in water resources management to conduct the following actions towards delivering the final tool:

• Definition of the modelling system, including three integrated sub-models covering hydrology, water management and water quality;
• Definition of the input parameters, including temperature, precipitation and land cover as well as management rules;
• Definition of outputs, including water resources, system performance, water quality, water withdrawal and improved management rules;
• Design of a tool to use the selected models for the modelling system, including system architecture, software and functional design;
• Programming of the modelling system to integrate the different models and process the available data;
• Adaptation of the selected hydrological and water management models to the Llobregat case study;
• Collection and inputting into the system of the following data for the Llobregat river basin: – topographical and geometrical data – past climate data – soil, vegetation and aquifer data – water quality and use.
• Calibration of the models based on optimising algorithms and validated against historical data;
• Definition of future scenarios and analysis of the combination of scenarios affecting climate, land use and water use;
• Estimation of the consequences of global changes in water supply and water demand together with the degree of uncertainty;
• Identification of adaptation strategies for the impacts on water and analysis of the economic and environmental costs and benefits.