CLICO

Media headlines are dominated by the prospect of regional water wars. Clearly, climate change poses several threats to human security; in particular, hydro-climatic hazards such as droughts and floods have a considerable capacity to exacerbate social tensions, intra- and inter-state conflict. Still, cooperation often trumps conflict. There are surprisingly few peer-reviewed studies rigorously addressing links between climate change, hydrological systems, conflict and security. CLICO will fill this gap in knowledge over the social dimensions of climate change, by looking whether hydro-climatic hazards intensify social tensions and conflicts in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel, or if they provide a catalyst for cooperation and peace. It will examine why some countries and communities are more vulnerable to droughts, floods and related conflict, and what types of policies and institutions are necessary to ensure adaptation, security and peace in the face of global and regional hydro-climatic change. The project will mobilize 13 research teams from Europe, North Africa, Sahel and the Middle East and will bring together for the first time some of the world’s leading researchers in water resource, vulnerability, and peace and security studies. Ten cases of hydro-conflicts will be studied ranging from Niger, Sudan, the Jordan and Nile basins to Cyprus, Italy and the Sinai desert. A large dataset – the first of its kind – of hydro-conflicts in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel will be regressed against climatic, hydrological and socio-economic variables. Policies and institutions at the national, international and transboundary levels will be investigated and their ability to face climate change and ensure human security will be assessed. Project results will be synthesised in a report that will identify potential security hotspots in the region and provide fresh policy ideas for promoting peace and security under changing hydro-climatic conditions.

Main findings include:

• There is no evidence of a link between hydro-climatic variability and domestic water conflicts.
• Democracies are likely to have more domestic water conflicts than autocracies, but autocracies are likely to have more violent water conflicts than democracies.
• Wars and violence increase the vulnerability of groups of the population to hydro-climatic hazards.
• States often maladapt, that is they pursue adaptation policies that end up increasing, instead of decreasing, the vulnerability of large parts of their population.
• Social security and civil security institutions – such as entitlement schemes, unemployment insurance, universal health care, or flood relief agencies – are central for reducing vulnerabilities and providing human security.

CLICO made a number of recommendations to policymakers that included increasing knowledge, strengthening accountability and institutions, better policy implementation, and improving communication and cooperation between actors. In addition, climate change adaptation and risk reduction should be mainstreamed, social security systems and civil protection strengthened, and early warning systems used to highlight systemic issues.

Project results can be used to identify potential hotspots in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel and to provide fresh policy ideas for promoting peace and security in the face of a changing climate and dwindling water resources.